Caucuses
Caucuses are organized blocs of NPPs (non-player politicians) within a party that share an agenda, ideology, or factional alignment. The caucus health system tracks how stable a caucus is by monitoring member churn, election status, and at-risk NPP retention over a rolling window.
Caucus health snapshot#
The caucus health snapshot is a per-caucus diagnostic that answers one question: is this caucus about to fall apart? It combines several signals into a single health label.
Churn tracking#
The snapshot tracks churn: the rate at which members enter and leave the caucus. Three churn event types are counted:
| Event | Description |
|---|---|
join |
An NPP joined the caucus |
leave |
An NPP left voluntarily |
forced_exit |
An NPP was removed against their will |
Churn is measured over a recent window of 12 turns. High churn in that window is a warning sign; low churn indicates stability.
Election status#
The snapshot includes the caucus's election status: whether the caucus is currently involved in an internal election (e.g., leadership contest) or is in a stable non-election period. Active elections can temporarily destabilize a caucus even if churn is low.
At-risk NPP retention#
The most important diagnostic is the at-risk member list. The snapshot identifies NPPs who are at risk of leaving the caucus and labels them by severity.
Constants#
| Constant | Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Recent window | 12 turns | The rolling window over which churn is measured |
| Warning buffer | 10 | Buffer applied before flagging a member as at-risk |
CAUCUS_NPP_RETENTION_MIN_RELATIONSHIP |
From partyOrg constants |
Minimum relationship with the chair required for an NPP to remain in the caucus |
Health labels#
Each caucus is assigned one of three health labels:
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Healthy | Low churn, no at-risk members, stable elections |
| Strained | Moderate churn or some at-risk members |
| Fragile | High churn, multiple critical-risk members, or active destabilizing elections |
At-risk members#
For each at-risk NPP, the snapshot records:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
relationshipWithChair |
The NPP's current relationship with the caucus chair |
gapFromExit |
How far the NPP is from the exit threshold (negative = already past it) |
| `exitRiskLabel | Severity label: Critical, Elevated, or Watch |
Exit risk labels#
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
Critical |
The NPP is at or past the exit threshold: departure is imminent |
Elevated |
The NPP is close to the exit threshold and trending poorly |
Watch |
The NPP is worth monitoring but not yet in danger |
The warning buffer of 10 is applied when computing these labels: it provides a margin so that a member is not flagged as Critical the instant their relationship dips below the threshold, giving the chair time to intervene.
Whip defiance snapshot#
The caucus health snapshot is integrated with the whip defiance system. When a whip is issued and NPPs defy it, those defiance events feed into the at-risk assessment. An NPP who repeatedly defies the whip is likely to appear in the at-risk list with an elevated or critical risk label, even if their raw relationship with the chair is still positive.
Strategic notes#
- Watch the 12-turn window. A sudden spike in
forced_exitevents is the earliest sign of caucus fragmentation. - Relationship with the chair is the key variable. Most at-risk members are flagged because their
relationshipWithChairhas fallen below or nearCAUCUS_NPP_RETENTION_MIN_RELATIONSHIP. Use Political Capital actions (especially private meetings) to repair relationships before members leave. - Whip defiance is a leading indicator. If members start defying whips, expect the at-risk list to grow. Address the underlying policy disagreement before it becomes a departure.
- Elections destabilize. Even a healthy caucus can show a
Strainedlabel during a leadership contest. This is usually temporary.
Related systems#
- Political Capital: How to repair relationships with at-risk NPPs
- Voting and Whips: How whip defiance is tracked
- Party Organization: How caucuses fit into the broader party structure
- NPP Behavior: What drives NPP relationship changes